6% YoY Growth - Miami Dade Real Estate Market Report

6% YoY Growth - Miami Dade Real Estate Market Report

Miami-Dade County single-family home sales rose 6% year-over-year in May 2024 as South Florida real estate continues to defy national trends due to robust migration, a strong job market, and a high percentage of cash buyers. According to statistics released by the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the MIAMI Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service (SEFMLS), Miami’s market remains resilient.

Miami's Unique Market Dynamics

“Miami real estate is always the exception to the rule,” says MIAMI Chairman of the Board Gus Fonte. “While other U.S. markets are seeing prices and sales decline, Miami home equity has surged two times the national figure over the last 15 years. Massive in-migration of households with higher incomes from the Northeast plus a high percentage of cash buyers is shielding the market from most of the impact of elevated mortgage rates.”

In the last 15 years, Miami-Dade County homeowners have earned nearly double the national average in home equity gains. New MIAMI REALTORS® analysis shows that these homeowners have gained $533,955 in equity compared to the U.S. average of $287,111 for single-family homes purchased in Q1 2009 and sold in Q1 2024.

Consistent Growth in Single-Family Home Sales

Miami single-family home sales have posted year-over-year gains in six of the last seven months. In May 2024, sales increased 6%, from 1,040 to 1,102. Although total home sales declined negligibly by 0.6% year-over-year, from 2,412 to 2,397, these statistics would be stronger if they included South Florida’s robust new construction market.

Condo Market Adjustments

Miami existing condos, which saw an increase in April 2024, decreased 5.6% year-over-year in May 2024, from 1,372 to 1,295. The condo market's decline is due to a lack of inventory at key price points, with about 53% of new condo inventory priced at $600,000 or above.

Luxury and Mid-Market Segments

Total home sales priced at $1M and above surged 9.5% year-over-year in May 2024, from 409 to 448. This growth is driven by new inventory in the upper-end market. Additionally, mid-market condos, priced between $400,000 and $600,000, increased 7.5% year-over-year, from 334 to 359.

Miami ranks No. 1 in the U.S. in luxury residential market price growth, according to Knight Frank’s 2024 Wealth Report. The city is also ranked among the Emerging Wealth Hubs and is the No. 4 U.S. City for Millionaire Growth Rate over the Past Decade, with a 75% increase.

Continued Price Appreciation

“High mortgage rates continue to derail sales, but home prices are still rising in over half of markets across all counties,” says MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton. “The price appreciation reflects the rising share of million-dollar home sales and the competition for lower-priced homes. I don’t foresee this appreciation abating with mortgage rates heading towards a quarter percent below 7% by the end of 2024 and a quarter percent below 6% by the end of 2025, boosted by the entry of frustrated buyers from the past three years.”

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.87% as of June 20, down from 6.95% the prior week but up from 6.67% one year ago.

Increasing Inventory Levels

Miami new listings have increased for the ninth consecutive month and are nearing pre-pandemic levels, giving home buyers more options. In May 2024, total new listings increased 14.12% year-over-year, from 3,280 to 3,743. However, Miami-Dade inventory is still down 33.9% from the historical average.

Total active listings at the end of May increased 43.7% year-over-year, from 9,331 to 13,405. Inventory of single-family homes increased 30.8% year-over-year, from 3,018 to 3,949. Condominium inventory increased 49.8% year-over-year, from 6,313 to 9,456.

Long-Term Appreciation and Economic Impact

Miami-Dade County single-family home median prices increased 6% year-over-year in May 2024, rising from $620,000 to $650,000. This marks 150 consecutive months (12.5 years) of price appreciation, the longest running streak on record. Miami single-family prices have risen 242.1% from May 2012 to May 2024. Existing condo median prices increased 2.4% year-over-year in May 2024, from $415,000 to $425,000, and have increased or stayed even in 150 of the last 156 months.

Despite the increase in prices, Miami remains a value in comparison to other global cities. In Miami, $1M nets you at least 60 square meters of prime property, which is much higher than in cities like Sydney, Shanghai, Paris, Los Angeles, New York, Geneva, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Monaco.

South Florida’s Strong Migration and Wealth

With elevated levels of out-of-state migration into Southeast Florida, the share of million-dollar homes to total sales has steadily climbed since 2019. In 2023, 153,347 driver licenses were exchanged for a Florida license in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Martin counties, up 8.3% from 2022.

Closing Thoughts

While new home construction and inventory levels are rising, Miami’s real estate market continues to perform well, driven by robust migration, strong job market, and a high percentage of cash buyers. If you’re considering buying or selling in this dynamic market, let’s connect. As your trusted real estate agent in Miami, I’m here to help you navigate these trends and make the most informed decisions.

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